Once again Paul changed his employment. He decided to work for an
organization dedicated to professional education. His better-paying
position enabled him to devote more time to his compulsion. He
realized that the implementation of new ideas affecting national
policy will require political changes. He decided to become more
involved in national politics, to learn what is involved in gaining
power in a democracy. His residence in a suburban Washington, D.C.
was ideal for this purpose.
Paul's initial effort was in observing a presidential transition
campaign. He spent some time at the headquarters of the
president-elect. He saw the various committees getting ready to
formulate and implement the new programs of the new administration.
He glimpsed the hordes of hopeful office holders and consultants
besieging the entrance to the building, trying to gain admittance to
the new power holders. What impressed him most was the chaotic nature
of the enterprise. Here was the mighty republic, the strongest
economic and military power on Earth. But the new administration
spent so much of its energies on winning the election that it had
little time to think about actually running the government. The
reason for the many economic and social problems of the nation became
obvious. There was political mismanagement on a grand scale, caused
by lack of preparedness for the tasks ahead.
Paul continued to think about national and world problems in his
spare time. His job was demanding on his energies, but he continued
to make progress. By the time the next presidential election came, he
was ready to play a bigger role. He volunteered to help the campaign
of the challenger to the most powerful office of the world. This time
he saw the inside of a presidential campaign organization, with its
complex activities. The initial effort of the organization was
focused on gaining enough delegates for the nomination. It was a huge
numbers game, with actual and potential delegates nominated, elected
and counted. Everything was controlled by the complex calendar of the
delegate elections of the 50 states of the Union. The media converted
the entire process into a horse race, until the other contenders
gradually dropped out.
Following the nomination the election campaign started. The winning
candidate madly rushed around the country. New government programs
were announced and policies proposed. These were not in accordance
with the public or national interest, but primarily for their effect
on public opinion polls. Paul now finally understood why so many
obviously unsound policies were followed by the government of the
United States. It surprised him to see how little effort was devoted
to the issues and problems of the nation during the quest for the
highest office of the Republic. No wonder the public was becoming
disillusioned by the process. Since the end of the war fewer and
fewer voters bothered to participate in the elections for the
presidency.
His education completed, Paul was now ready to take action. He formed
a non-profit organization -- the American Peace Consortium -- to help
the development of new ideas for world peace. His new ideas were
structured into a coherent whole, based on management principles,
military strategy and alternative futures. A systematic approach to
reaching world peace was completed. As the world situation remained
precarious, with the continuation of the arms race and the
proliferation of global problems, it became obvious that new policy
initiatives were needed. There was a growing awareness that real
national security required both military and economic power. And
economic might is based on a well-functioning, ordered society.
The times were also becoming right for new initiatives. Paul's work
with systems made him realize the feasibility of peace. Wars, natural
disasters and man-made catastrophes have been around since time
immemorial. The actual and potential dangers of war vastly increased
after World War II. But very little was done to reduce the threat of
nuclear war between the two superpowers.
During the Cold War the obstacles to world peace were very
formidable. Peace was possible but, given the political realities of
the U.S.-Soviet confrontation, not very likely. With the arrival of
the new Soviet leadership, Paul realized that "Peace Is Feasible."
Because of new economic and political priorities, both superpowers
needed at least a suspension of the uncontrolled arms race. Given the
huge accumulation of national and world problems, the need for new
thinking and innovative approaches was becoming urgent. A tremendous
amount of resources -- knowledge, capital, natural -- were available
for problem solving. And humanity's instinct for survival always
provided the motivation needed for action.
Flying offered a good example of the difference between "possibility"
and "feasibility." Men knew -- by observing birds and insects -- that
flying by humans was possible. Flying by humans became
feasible with the understanding of the principles of
aerodynamics and the invention of the internal combustion engine.
Similarly, a structure of world peace could be constructed once such
an effort became feasible.
Paul's also had to discover a workable model to the peace system he
tried to construct. Such a solution came to him because of his work
with the study of the future. He realized that war and the practice
of militarism is a social institution. It was invented by people to
fill a certain need, and was not a preordained part of human
culture.
An understanding of social inventions and
institutions is absolutely essential, if we wish to understand war
and militarism, and the steps we might take to abolish war.
A social invention is a new organization, procedure or law, or a
combination of these, that changes the ways in which people relate to
themselves or to each other, either individually or collectively. A
successful and widely accepted social invention eventually becomes a
social institution, and an accepted part of everyday existence.
Human progress was marked by the continuous development of social
institutions. Successful social inventions enabled the better
functioning of human societies. For example, some of these social
institutions provided the fundamental structures for government:
legislatures, codes and courts of law, taxation, political parties,
civil service, freedom of the press. Other social inventions
formalized human relationships, like marriage, divorce, adoption; or
provided valuable services that helped to get along in an
increasingly complex society: schools, universities, libraries,
hospitals.
An interesting aspect of social inventions and organizations is the
fact that most of the social inventions were made quite a while ago,
some of them going back to prehistoric times. Although the twentieth
century was marked by an incredible large number of technical
inventions, relatively few social inventions were made. Thus many of
the social problems date back to biblical times, and are not handled
better now than during the age of the prophets.
Not all social institutions are beneficial. Harmful or immoral social
institutions include organized crime, dueling, trial by ordeal,
slavery. Some of these failed social institutions persisted into the
19th century. (For example, trial by battle wasn't officially
abolished in England until 1819. It took a great Civil War in the
U.S. to terminate slavery.)
If we examine war as a social institution, we find a mixture of
benefits and costs. While the roots of war go back to prehistoric
times, formal citizen armies emerged about 3000 B.C., in the
city-state of Sumer. Professional soldiers and armies, for
long-distance campaigns, were formed about 2100 B.C. in Babylon.
While much suffering was caused by wars and militarism, on the
balance civilizations and countries that were successful in waging
wars had a tendency to survive, while their losing opponents tended
to disappear. Thus the rise of the United States was strongly
facilitated by some victorious wars and campaigns. Only the
tremendous increase in the lethality of weapons makes war such an
unacceptable social institution as we are reaching the end of the
20th century.
The questions remains: Can war be abolished as a failing social
institution? The advent of nuclear weapons and the tremendous
increase in the lethality of chemical, biological and the so-called
conventional weapons certainly made war a practice that should be
discarded as soon as feasible. Unfortunately, most people are not
aware of the concept of social inventions -- that new institutions
and practices can be developed to replace inadequate ones. There is
also a misconception on the part of many that war and violence are
ingrained in human nature and behavior, and therefore must be
accepted as inevitable.
The abolition of slavery is certainly a good example of abolishing a
major social institution. Slavery existed as long as war. The U.S.
Constitution recognized slavery, and elaborate precautions were set
up in the South to make it a viable institution. Yet the institution
was abolished, mainly because gradually a significant portion of the
American electorate turned against it. A ready alternative to slavery
was available in the form of emancipation.
Abolishing of organized warfare and violence will be more difficult.
War is a much more practiced social institution, and the constituency
for its continuation -- both active and passive -- is much more
sizeable. Developing new social inventions will be very challenging.
What makes the task feasible is that the motivation -- the wish for
human survival -- is greater than it was for the abolition of
slavery.
Anthropologist Margaret Mead succinctly summarized the conditions for
the successful abolition of war:
"The people must recognize the defects of the old invention, and
someone must make a new (and better) one...There is further needed a
belief that social invention is possible..."
One additional task remained. It was also necessary to evaluate the
best alternatives in deciding between war and peace. Because of his
experiences Paul was strongly predisposed against war and militarism.
He felt that war was an immoral social institution. But there had to
be realistic reasons as well to justify the radical action of
abolishing war. Fortunately a science already existed to assist in
the making of the right decisions in public affairs, such as the
different levels of military preparedness. He spent some time in
understanding the field of policy analysis.
Paul learned that policy analysis is defined as the "process of
examining goals, means and relationships in order to achieve the most
effective, efficient and equitable governmental decisions." Policy
analysis included the systematic identification of a set of goals to
be achieved, the alternatives for achieving them the relationships
between goals and alternatives, and finally some method of scoring so
that the various alternatives could be ranked and selected. Simple
computer technologies were available to assist in this process.
Paul gained the assistance of the leading public policy analyst
expert in laying out the various national security alternatives that
were available to the United States. He was reassured to learn that
his gut feeling about war -- that it was an immoral social
institution that had to be abolished -- was indeed the best national
policy available to America.
The "War
and Peace Policy Alternatives"
table (Exhibit A) gives an overview of the principal arms control
policy options and the appropriate evaluation factors:
a. Burden on Economy. Military preparations
are expensive, and they divert taxes and resources from the
economy.
b. Avoidance of Nuclear War. A very significant factor, since a
nuclear exchange of any magnitude would cause tremendous damage to
our society and economy.
c. Avoidance of Being Conquered. Since Americans rightfully want to
enjoy their freedoms, this is a very important goal.
d. Solve National and World Problems. Many of our national problems
can only be solved by new federal funds, now badly depleted by our
huge defense expenditures and the continuing budget deficit. In
addition, as the leading economic power, we should be making a
substantial contribution to the solving of world problems as
well.
e. Political and Technical Feasibility. Any policy option should be
acceptable to the citizens and political leadership of our democratic
nation. In addition, the physical possibility of the policy option
must be considered, taking into account the state of scientific and
engineering knowledge.
f. Moral Values. The morality of policy options should be considered
in the making of evaluations.
The table organizes the policy options and assigns a value to each of
the related goals. Finally, the individual Policy Action/Goal values
are summarized, to yield a total value measurement for the policy
options. Using the methodology, the higher the value, the better the
policy option. For example, encouraging a total nuclear war has a
very low value, since it would destroy the very things we want to
protect.
The detailed discussion of the policy options follows:
The Atlantic Charter of 1941 spelled out
the war aims of the United States and Great Britain. In the document
two great statesmen, Franklin D. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill,
speaking on the behalf of democracy, affirmed that "all the nations
of the world, for realistic as well as spiritual reasons, must come
to the abandonment of the use of force." Forty-nine years later these
words are more applicable than ever. Of course, the great world
religions always supported, for spiritual reasons, the abandonment of
force and violence. It should reassure the concerned citizens of the
Republic that realistic reasons -- based on the cold facts of the
economy, military technology, the state of our society and the global
environment -- also strongly support the moral and spiritual reasons
for the abolishing of war. Just as "honesty is the best policy," so
is the abolition of war and militarism the best national policy
alternative.