The restoration of America's self-confidence and the start of the
mismanagement correction programs also carried over to the conducting
of international relations. The Soviet Union was settling down to a
period of reconstruction as well. There the mismanagement started
with the Bolshevik Revolution, and continued until the rise of
Gorbachev. But the superpowers damaged many other countries as well.
Taking advantage of their rivalries many governments obtained huge
quantities of armaments. These weapons could be used for the buildup
of armies, to bully their neighbors and to oppress their own
citizens. Massive damage was inflicted on billions of people, who
were unable to reach their full potential under their militaristic
regimes.
The superpower rivalries and the worldwide unrestrained arms trade
created another grave danger to world peace: the spread of nuclear,
chemical and biological weapon capability to many of these unstable
Third World countries. Many of these same countries also relied on
enmities and hatreds against their neighbors to retain their power
over their subjects. In spite of the end of the Cold War many
regional conflicts continued, and threatened to erupt into
devastating conflagrations.
The support given to the Soviet Union during their times of troubles
convinced their leadership that the United States and its allies
could be trusted. Democratic capitalism did not try to overthrow
socialism or conquer Russia. America's interest was in the growth of
democracy, the development of economies and participation in the free
flow of goods and services. The new United States' programs of the
Warless World and the World Development Plan was also a national
policy that was in the Soviet Union's interest.
The Department of Peace was the natural coordinator in these efforts
toward the easing of the remaining world tensions. One of Paul's
first task as Secretary of Peace was the setting up of a technology
transfer function. Information was gathered about such topics as
territorial defense and non-lethal weapons. As the United States
military started to move toward a territorial defense, the experience
of such countries as Switzerland was utilized. Research contracts
were let out for non-lethal weapons. The discoveries of the research
were immediately made available to the Soviet Union. That country,
because of the lingering ethnic strife among their nationalities, was
especially interested in non-lethal methods of containing
violence.
Both the United States and the Soviet Union developed a common cause
in keeping the peace of the world. In the United States the people
spoke loud and clear: Enough of the mismanagement -- especially of
war and militarism! In the Soviet Union the need for continuing
economic assistance from the United States and its allies gave
impetus to cooperation.
The biggest danger to the world remained from the unstable Third
World countries. The unthinking proliferation of technologies for
building weapons of mass destructions started to threaten human
survival itself. While nuclear or chemical weapons were dangerous,
experts were especially concerned about bacteriological weapons. It
was feared that unexpected scientific breakthroughs or mutations of
biological agents would cause millions of deaths, and spread even to
uninvolved countries.
Paul proposed, and the President accepted, the setting up an informal
World Police Force. Both superpowers agreed to prevent and contain
the development and use of weapons of mass destruction. Both nations
agreed to coordinate their intelligence. If a nuclear emergency
threatened, they would put their forces on alert. A joint communiqu
was to be issued, warning the hostile parties against using their
nuclear weapons.
The new arrangements soon had their first test. The strife between
India and Pakistan that existed since their independence again
intensified. Lack of economic development -- caused in part by
continuing military expenditures -- contributed to the rise of
fundamentalist politicians in both countries. After weeks of border
skirmishes the armed forces were totally mobilized. As several times
in the past, India and Pakistan were ready to go to war. But this
time both countries have developed nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles, ready to carry great destruction to their major cities.
After such colossal destruction it would take decades before normalcy
would return to these underdeveloped countries.
The newly established joint task force was carefully monitoring the
military buildups. Diplomatic reports from New Delhi and Islamabad
were shared. The diplomatic efforts started with the usual United
Nations resolutions and shuttle diplomacy between the two capitals.
But the joint task force started to coordinate possible military
action, including a specific operational plan. As it was becoming
apparent that nuclear strikes were seriously considered by both India
and Pakistan, the nuclear containment plan was instantly implemented.
An emergency meeting was called. The joint United States-Soviet
peacekeeping team met with the presidents of India and Pakistan. The
two hostile nations were put on notice that at the first sign of
preparations for a nuclear attack by either side, the United States
and the Soviet Union would launch a massive non-nuclear strike
against the aggressor, attacking key industrial centers and military
headquarters.
The threat of such a military action caused both of the warring
countries to back down and start the disengagement of their forces.
Armed with the appropriate authorization, Paul immediately met with
officials of India and Pakistan. An increase of economic development
aid was offered, in exchange for the elimination of the weapons of
mass destruction. The favorable response received added considerable
impetus to the World Development Plan.
The success of the initial test of such a joint positive police
action created further initiatives. A joint command was set up as a
clearinghouse of military intelligence of Third World hostilities.
Allied cooperation was solicited and received. Detailed operational
procedures were set up to handle similar future emergencies. Two
additional programs were also created. The research and development
efforts started to produce non-lethal weapons. A joint non-lethal
force was set up, to assist in international peacekeeping missions
under United Nations auspices. The second program offered technology
transfer and development aid in exchange for the termination of
mass-destruction weapons programs and forces. These initiatives were
able to prevent the recurrence of future crises in the region.
There was great relief throughout the world following the resolution
of the India-Pakistan crisis. Many governments of Muslim countries
were concerned about the defeat of an Islamic nation. They lauded the
efforts of the United States in resolving this issue of great concern
to them. This was a period of goodwill for which Paul was waiting. He
now was ready for another peace initiative -- the setting up of the
first Peace Confederation.
Peace Confederations were another of the social inventions in place
of war. Their purpose was to secure political and economic
cooperation through confederations of countries related culturally,
religiously, geographically or economically. The main objective was
reducing the danger of war and the burden of armaments, and securing
the benefits of cooperative economic and political development.
In the past there were strong drives toward the establishment of
national identities and the accentuating of religious, cultural,
linguistic and other differences. These trends now became
increasingly counter-productive, given the increase in global
interdependence, the dangers of war and the cost of armaments and the
great benefits that could accrue from scientific and technical
cooperation. Accordingly, the short-term advantages to ethnic groups,
religious communities, economic organizations and others from a
strict separation of national identities started to yield to
long-term consideration of benefits that resulted from increased
cooperation among nations.
The European Economic Community was the first group of countries that
moved toward confederalization. While the principal benefits were
considered to be economical, there was also an element of peace
seeking in the endeavor. The nations of Europe engaged in the 20th
century in two world wars, at tremendous costs and few advantages. It
was now time for other clusters of countries to consider this model
of national coexistence in place of fruitless strife and violence.
Paul knew that many governments would be able to justify giving up of
strict national sovereignty for the advantages of increased political
and economic development .
Paul's understanding of the origins and developments of the countries
of Middle East -- what one called the Arab World -- made it possible
for him to propose a peace confederation for the area. While the
announced goal was to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict that festered
since 1948, the main objective was the maintaining of the momentum
toward a warless world.
The Middle-East
Crisis
The winding down of the Cold War should have brought a lessening of
tensions, and a movement toward peace in the Middle East. Instead, we
have continuing strife and crises. The strategic location of the
countries involved -- including 60% of the world's oil reserves --
makes the instabilities contribute to war, instead of peace.
Mankind is also at a crossroads as we are approaching the 21st
century. The ending of superpower confrontation and the freeing of
the Soviet satellites eliminated the danger of war in Central Europe,
and its threat of escalation into a nuclear conflict. There was hope
that the lesser regional discords would be resolved gradually and
peacefully. But now we are paying the penalty for the excessive
arming of some countries.
What will the future bring? Can we continue the trend toward a more
peaceful world, where economic, political and social development will
take precedence over military adventures? Or will we see power hungry
governments learn the wrong lessons, and continue the building up of
military "strength" at the expense of their people? Especially
worrisome is the ability and interest of some governments to acquire
weapons of mass destruction -- nuclear, chemical and biological.
The Need for an Arab
Solution
Arabs speak a common language, most profess Islam as their religion,
remember a shared history of greatness and power, and have
governments and institutions -- such as the Arab League -- that
acclaim the unity of the Arab nation. But a strong streak of
individualism and a tendency to enmity creates obstacles to joint
action, and generates quarrels among countries that ought to
cooperate with each other. The lack of cooperation in coordinating
their economies and foreign policies makes the Arab world an area of
strife, drawing in foreign powers and destabilizing the entire
region.
The problems of the Arab world continue to worsen. A population
growth rate of 3 percent annually begins to create shortages of food,
water and arable land. The emerging crisis over water resources is
especially troubling. Industrial development is lacking. Per capita
income in most Arab countries is low. But the low income is further
impaired by the wide disparity between the rich and the poor Arab
countries. The inadequate rate of economic development is made worse
by the continuing brain drain of tens of thousands of
professionals.
Far-sighted Arabs and sympathizers recognize these problems and
freely offer the needed remedies. But until recently the mind-set of
the Arab political leadership concentrated on the wrong solution --
militarism and armaments. Thus the Arab world was the leading
importer of military equipment and weapons systems. During the last
two decades over $700 billion were spent for military purposes. The
fear and distrust created by these huge armies contributed to
hostilities, and prevented badly needed cooperation among the Arab
countries.
The past decades clearly proved that militarism and armaments are not
the solutions -- they are the problem. The right solution includes
the Western European model of creating a common market for
cooperation in economic development. In the emerging European
Community the component nation-states in the past engaged in
destructive wars until finally they learned the benefits of economic
and political teamwork.
A Super-Optimum (Win-Win)
Solution
Super-optimum solutions are alternatives to political, economic and
other policy problems, where the two or more sides of an issue or
opinion difference come out ahead of their best expectations. The
reasonable needs of the various parties involved must be met:
The Arab
World. The people and countries
of the Arab world need political and economic cooperation, and
gradual social development toward democracy and human rights. By
giving up the reliance on armaments and militarism, vast resources
will be available for industrial and agricultural development,
expansion of water supplies, and improvements to the educational and
health systems.
The Palestinians
need their own state, to eliminate their powerlessness, and enable
them to have the needed improvement of their living standards.
Israel needs to be relieved of the crushing burden of
defense expenditures. The economic development of the nation will
require cooperating with the neighboring countries on the common
problems of the region.
Non-Arab
Minorities. Such non-Arab
minorities as the Kurds, Berbers, Black Sudanese, Lebanese and Coptic
Christians must retain their cultural identity, while they remain
part of the new Arab world.
A Peace Confederation for the
Arab World
Armies and weapons are weakening the Arab world. The endless flow of
armaments to the region merely served to create fears and hatreds,
and war after war. After the flow of vast petrodollars to the Arab
world most of the ordinary Arabs are no better off than before.
Meanwhile, much of the world continues to improve its economy and
society. The industrial powers of Europe and Asia are bypassing the
Arab world. In another 20 years the petroleum reserves will be
exhausted, or will be made superfluous by new energy technologies. If
present trends continue, there will be 300 million Arabs occupying a
depleted agricultural base, perennially short of water and food.
Since war and militarism are not the solution, then peace must be the
answer. A new social invention is proposed, designed to overcome the
problems and take advantage of the opportunities of the Arab world.
The idea of a "peace confederation" is especially appropriate for the
countries of the Middle East -- the Arab countries and Israel.
A Peace Confederation is a decentralized union of countries related
culturally, religiously, geographically or economically, for
achieving political and economic cooperation. Such confederations
could established for reducing the danger of war and the burden of
armaments, and for securing the benefits of cooperative economic and
political development. The European Community is emerging as an
example of such a union.
Because the proposed Peace Confederation is to embrace all the
countries within the Arab world -- including Israel -- the name
Confederation of
Abraham is proposed, to
symbolize the common spiritual ancestry claimed by Muslims,
Christians and Jews living in the area.
Structure of the Peace
Confederation
Governmental powers will belong to the component countries. Only
those powers specifically delegated will be under the jurisdiction of
the Confederation.
Executive
branch. The bulk of the
governmental operations of the Confederation will involve areas of
cooperation, development, security affairs, and the like. A chief
executive will be elected by the member countries of the
Confederation. Voting will be according to a formula based on
population and financial contributions of the countries.
A balanced cabinet will include departments for science and
technology, economic development, environmental protection, water
resources management, communications, transportation infrastructure,
and other problem-solving programs and operations.
Legislative
branch. A single chamber
legislature, based on the populations and economic contributions of
the participating countries will be set up. The legislative work will
involve taxation for the needed expenditures, and appropriate
legislation to facilitate the programs and operations of the
Confederation.
Judicial
branch. The Confederation Court
will have jurisdiction over disputes that may arise from the
activities of the Confederation.
Military
power. A main purpose of the
Confederation will be the elimination of the use of war and violence
in solving disputes. A significant reductions of the military forces
of the participating countries can be made very quickly. The priority
will be the control and elimination of the weapons of mass
destruction -- nuclear, chemical and biological. The most effective
of the individual countries' armaments will be made available to the
Confederation's defense force, to deter potential aggressors. Further
security will be obtained through security guarantees from the United
States, the European Community, and other countries interested in the
stability of the Confederation. Under this approach at least 75% of
the military expenditures can be cut.
Economic
development. The income from the
continued dependence of the world on stable Middle East oil sources
should ensure the needed funds and loans for industrial and
agricultural development. Guaranteed access to oil -- at moderate
price increases linked to inflation -- will be exchanged for
technology transfer agreements and loans for economic development.
The non-military debts of the countries in the region will be
rescheduled and made bearable under the International Monetary
Fund.
There must be a sharing of oil income, to reduce the differences
between the rich and the poor states. 25% of the oil revenues should
be set aside for a development fund for the needy countries of the
Confederation. Similarly, water resource development and sharing
agreements must be established, to make a just allocation of this
vital resource.
The industrial and agricultural development programs, water supply
and irrigation projects, and the general development of the economy
-- including the service sector -- will gradually solve the problems
of insufficient jobs and unemployment. Conditions will be created to
reverse the brain drain, and make the needed progress in the
scientific and technical fields.
The improvement of the economy will be favorable to political and
social development as well. A process of democratization -- under
constitutional monarchies or republican forms of governments -- will
take place. The status of women will gradually improve, as the
expanded economy will require the participation of women in the
professions and in the work force.
The Role of
Israel
Special attention has to be given to the role of Israel in the
Confederation of Abraham. An independent Palestine must emerge in the
Occupied Territories and coexist with Israel. In exchange, Israel
will provide valuable "unity services" to the new Confederation:
Example. The fact that Israel -- a non-Arab country -- was
able to establish relations with Egypt will weaken the arguments of
those Arabs who resist the idea of cooperating with fellow Arabs.
Insurance. There may be concerns among the other powers that
the Confederation will eventually gain considerable economic strength
and will be hostile to their interests. The participation of Israel
in the Confederation will tend to diminish these concerns.
Gatekeeper. In the past, frequently there was a power struggle
between the North African and the Asian segments of the Arab world.
The location of Israel between the two potential contenders will
prevent this possibly harmful development.
Military
balance. Israel also will be
useful in the consolidation of the military forces of the
Confederation. Israeli participation in the command structures will
ensure the needed balance and prevent possible domination by any one
of the member countries.
Resolving Territorial
Disputes
The establishment of the Confederation will be followed quickly by
the resolution of the remaining territorial disputes of the region.
Following Israel's joining of the Confederation of Abraham, a fully
independent Palestinian state can be established on the West Bank and
the Gaza Strip. The Golan Heights will be returned to Syria. Lebanon
should be partitioned between the Christian and Muslim parts of the
population. The Christian Republic of Lebanon will become a member of
the Confederation. The other inhabitants of Lebanon may choose to
join Syria, or retain their independent republic.
The status of Jerusalem needs to be readjusted. The City of Peace
will become not only the capital of Israel and Palestine, but also
will offer extra-territorial privileges to the Islamic, Christian and
Jewish holy places, and some Confederation and United Nations
activities.
Benefits of the Peace
Confederation
Establishing the Confederation of Abraham will bring substantial
benefits to all concerned. These benefits make this into a true
super-optimum, win-win solution.
The Arab world will become a real Arab nation, with economic
prosperity and full confidence to take its rightful place among the
countries of the world. A gradual democratization process will
strengthen their societies, and enable the realization of their full
potential.
Palestinians will finally have their state and the end of
powerlessness. Cooperating with Israel and other countries will
create a prosperous economy and society.
Israel will have peace, and can then concentrate on building up its
economy and absorbing the Soviet Jews.
The Kurds and other minorities will have the freedom to develop and
retain cultural independence, and gain the benefits of participating
in a large common market.
The United States, the European Community, Japan, and the rest of the
world will have a safe source of energy and valuable trading
partner.
Bringing About the
Confederation
A time of crisis often provides opportunities for radical, but
beneficial change. The current crisis in the Gulf may offer a similar
occasion to make progress in the affairs of the Arab world.
Once the major Arab countries involved accept the Confederation as
the basis of the future relations in the region, then the danger of
future wars is averted. A time table of specific actions can be
prepared, to ensure that action indeed will be taken. The withdrawal
of military forces from the several occupied territories can be
completed. The various institutions and agencies can be set up and
funded. Israel can be invited to join the Confederation in the roles
suggested above. While outside powers must not be involved in the
setting up of the Confederation, they can be requested to guarantee
the eventual territorial settlements. Within one year the
Confederation of Abraham can be a functioning entity.
A cultural and spiritual revival of the restored Arab nation would be
the natural outcome of the Confederation of Abraham. The
Confederation also would serve as a model for overcoming the futile
struggles and hostilities that hamper human progress throughout the
Third World.