Beyond the Gulf Crisis
The end of the Gulf Crisis marked the beginning of new problems. Ten years after the expulsion of Iraq from Kuwait the region remains unstable. The Gulf war and its aftermath caused massive damage to the economies and infrastructures of the countries involved. The destruction was compounded by the exodus of refugees and the catastrophic environmental devastation of the region. Future threats are continuing to emerge. Particular concerns include the continued lack of economic and social development, and the rise of religious fundamentalism. The breakdown of the previous balance of power in the Gulf region could lead to further destabilization. The only certainty is the need for the emergence of a new Middle East after the conclusion of hostilities in the region.
The implementation of Palestinian self-rule following the agreement between the
PLO and Israel is promising. But this favorable event is counterbalanced to some
extent by the civil war in the Sudan, and the continuation of fundamentalist violence
in Algeria.
All too often wars cause new enmities and hatreds, unless preventive actions are
taken. A militant brand of anti-Western Islam threatens to disrupt the needed cooperation
with the technologically advanced developed countries. An Islam vs. Christianity
confrontation would be very damaging to both parties. The transfer of modern technology
and financial aid from the West is essential to the economic and social development
of the region. Without leadership and direction to achieve the needed goals, the
Arab World is threatened with continued decline. Can the moderate Arab countries,
with the United States and its allies win the peace?
The region is remaining unstable, because of the lack of a unified Arab-dominated
security organization. Without this desirable structure two other arrangements are
in place:
Neither of these alternatives are truly beneficial to the Arab World. American
influence may be the least harmful, but will still be resented. In the past Iran,
Turkey and the former Soviet Union pursued policies that tended to dominate or disunite
the Arab Nation. For the Arab World to regain fully its dignity, self-esteem and
confidence, it is imperative that a New Human Order for the Middle East be established
on Arab terms. It is essential that the Arab World to be fully in control of its
independence and destiny. The moderate Arab governments can provide the moral and
political leadership in reaching this highly desirable goal. President Hosni Mubarak's
proposal, offering to make the Middle East a zone free from all types of weapons
of mass destruction, is an example of the type of leadership needed.
The trend toward successful peace negotiations between the Arab countries and Israel
may remove some of the tensions of the region. However, peace negotiations only tend
to be fruitful when the parties involved can visualize an outcome where their long-term
interests are mutually satisfied. The results of the peace process to date do not
offer much hope for reaching true peace. No simple formulas -- like "peace for
land" -- are likely to bring enduring peace, if they do not also solve or alleviate
the numerous other problems of the Arab World.
It is vitally important to convert the aftermath of the disaster in the Gulf region
into a new beginning for a restored Arab World, finally able to come to terms with
its past and shape its successful future. A long-term, carefully thought out solution
must replace short-term expedients. The time will be ripe for new, imaginative political
and economic initiatives in the region. Moderate Arab leadership will have an opportunity
to gain great credibility by solving the problems that hampered progress in the Arab
World. But partial solutions are not likely to succeed. Only a comprehensive approach
to the numerous political, economic, social and other problems of the region will
be effective. With the proper leadership, a new beginning could emerge -- new ideas,
new systems of government and new approaches to tolerance and cooperation.
The Importance of Human Development
The recently published Human Development Report 1999 continues to highlight
the problems and opportunities of the Arab World. Prepared under the auspices of
the United Nations Development Program, the report used a comprehensive set of statistics
and indicators that allowed the making of comparisons among the 174 countries listed.
A ranking of the countries is based on the Human Development Index, which is a composite
of the gross domestic product, life expectancy and educational attainment.
The twenty Arab countries listed generally have a low ranking according to the Index.
The oil-producing Gulf states rank from the 35th (Kuwait) to the 78th (Saudi Arabia)
position. Out of the 174 states listed only six Arab countries were in the upper
half, while fourteen were in the lower half in the rankings of the Human Development
Index.
The insufficient attention given to economic, social and political development is
the principal cause of the relative low ranking of the Arab countries. But the 1992
Human Development Report also pointed out that at least ten of the Arab states
"have a considerable potential to improve their human development levels --
by spending their incomes better and planning their investment priorities more wisely."
The ranking of Israel in the 23rd position validates this statement. The Arabs have
the Semitic culture, geographical environment, climate and natural resources comparable
to what is possessed by Israel. The economic help given to Israel is matched by the
oil wealth of the Arab World. There is no reason why the Arab Nation could not reach
a much higher level of economic and human development through the right set of policies
and programs.
The Need for an Arab Solution
Arabs speak a common language, most profess Islam as their religion, remember a shared
history of greatness and power, and have governments and institutions -- such as
the Arab League -- that acclaim the unity of the Arab Nation. But a tendency to enmity
creates obstacles to joint action, and generates quarrels among countries that ought
to cooperate with each other. The lack of cooperation in coordinating their economies
and foreign policies makes the Arab World an area of strife, drawing in foreign powers
and destabilizing the entire region.
The problems of the Arab World continue to worsen. A population growth rate of 3
percent annually begins to create shortages of food, water and arable land. The emerging
crisis over water resources is especially troubling. Industrial development is lacking.
Per capita income in most Arab countries is low. But the low income is further impaired
by the wide disparity between the rich and the poor Arab countries. The inadequate
rate of economic development is made worse by the continuing brain drain of tens
of thousands of professionals.
Far-sighted Arabs and sympathizers recognize these problems and freely offer the
needed remedies. But until recently the mindset of the Arab political leadership
concentrated on the wrong solution -- militarism and armaments. Thus the Arab World
was the leading importer of military equipment and weapons systems. During the last
two decades over $750 billion were spent for military purposes. The fear and distrust
created by these huge armies contributed to hostilities, and prevented badly needed
cooperation among the Arab countries. The longstanding and deeply rooted habits of
violent politics is a principal cause of the lack of progress. The development of
nonviolent politics -- based on the moral values of Islam that favor peace over war
and conciliation over violence -- is needed for the pacification and development
of the Arab World.
The Iraq-Iran war, and the destruction resulting from the Iraq vs. United States
confrontation clearly prove that militarism and armaments are not the solutions --
they are the problem. The right solution includes the Western European model of creating
a common market for cooperation in economic development. In the emerging European
Union the component nation-states in the past engaged in destructive wars, until
finally they learned the benefits of economic and political teamwork.
Pan-Arabism based on uniting the Arab Nation through violence and force is not workable,
as shown by the invasion of Kuwait. But Pan-Arabism based on peaceful and voluntary
cooperation is becoming increasingly urgent. The special conditions of the Arab World
require the creation of a new mindset of working together for a better tomorrow,
through the resolution of ancient enmities and hostilities. The Arabs, as the original
followers of Islam, also have a moral obligation to create a peaceful future, where
the economic and social development of the Third World -- with its large Muslim population
-- can continue and even accelerate.
A Super-Optimum (Win-Win) Solution
Super-optimum solutions are innovative alternatives to political, economic and other
policy problems, where the contending parties come out ahead of their initial best
expectations.
There are several techniques available for reaching super-optimum solutions. Higher
goals can be set than what was considered previously the best, while still preserving
realism. Resources available can be expanded. Arrangements can be made for one side
to receive big benefits, while the other side incurs only small costs. Alternatives
that are not mutually exclusive can be combined. Sources of conflicts among the parties
involved can be decreased or removed. Ultimately a set of superior alternatives can
be developed that can satisfy the several sides of a complex conflict. The Appendix
provides additional explanation of this new approach to overcome conflict among nations,
organizations and even individuals.
There is already a successful super-optimum solution that benefited some of the countries
of the region. The Camp David Accords of 1989 was a classic super-optimum solution,
where Egypt, Israel, the United States and everybody involved came out ahead of their
original best expectations. An even better super-optimum solution is feasible with
the right attitudes of the countries and ethnic groups that stand to benefit from
the new ideas.
Needs of the Super-Optimum Solution Participants
The needs of the various parties involved must be met. Since we are looking for a
comprehensive solution, all the countries in and around the Arab World must be considered.
This involves not only Israel, but also the industrialized world and the developing
countries that need a reliable source of oil from the Gulf.
The Arab World. The people and countries of the Arab World need political
and economic independence, and gradual social development toward democracy and human
rights. Especially it is important to replace enmities and animosities with a spirit
of cooperation and sharing. Only then can the problems be addressed with sufficient
energy and resources. The tendency to war and violence must be checked and reduced.
The Saudi Arabian policy of partially demilitarizing the country and avoiding the
creation of a large army must be extended to the entire Arab World. The resumption
of the previous arms race must be prevented. The Western and other arms suppliers
must be stopped from selling their armaments and weapons to the countries in the
region. The economic resources of the Arab World instead must be used to develop
the economies and infrastructure of the countries involved. By giving up the reliance
on armaments and militarism, vast resources will be available for industrial and
agricultural development, expansion of water supplies, improvements to the educational
and health systems, and other needs of developing countries. Equally important for
the Arab World is the reaching of a balance between the conflicting claims of an
"Arab Nation" and the claims of the more localized loyalties of each country
based on geography and history. Finally, the newly emerging Arab Nation must feel
that it is in control of its own destiny, and does not need superpower support, except
at its own terms.
The Palestinians need their own state, to eliminate their powerlessness,
and enable them to have the needed improvement of their living standards. Fortunately,
this process has been initiated with the self-government of the West Bank and Gaza.
Israel needs to be relieved of the crushing burden of defense expenditures.
The economic development of the nation will require cooperating with the neighboring
countries on the common problems of the region.
Non-Arab Minorities. Such non-Arab minorities as the Kurds, Berbers,
Black Sudanese, Lebanese and Coptic Christians must retain their cultural identity,
while they remain part of the new Arab World.
A Peace Confederation for the Arab World
Armies and weapons are weakening the Arab World. The endless flow of armaments to
the region merely served to create fears and hatreds, and war after war. After the
flow of vast petrodollars to the Arab World most of the ordinary Arabs are no better
off than before. Meanwhile, much of the world continues to improve its economy and
society. The industrial powers of Europe and Asia are bypassing the Arab World. In
another 20 years the petroleum reserves will be exhausted, or will be made superfluous
by new energy technologies. If present trends continue, there will be 300 million
Arabs occupying a depleted agricultural base, perennially short of water and food.
Since war and militarism are not the solution, then peace must be the answer. A new
social invention is proposed, designed to overcome the problems and take advantage
of the opportunities of the Arab World. The idea of a "peace confederation"
is especially appropriate for the countries of the Middle East -- the Arab countries
and Israel.
A Peace Confederation is a decentralized union of countries related culturally, religiously,
geographically or economically, for achieving political and economic cooperation.
Such confederations could established for reducing the danger of war and the burden
of armaments, and for securing the benefits of cooperative economic and political
development. The European Union has emerged as a successful example of such a union.
Because the proposed Peace Confederation is to embrace all the countries within the
Arab World -- including Israel -- the name Confederation of Abraham is proposed,
to symbolize the common spiritual ancestry claimed by Muslims, Christians and Jews
living in the area.
The Confederation of Abraham would not only bring peace to the Middle East, but could
also initiate the change of the fragmented Arab World into a new Arab Nation. Israel,
with its Jewish population culturally and biologically closely related to Arabs can
serve as a catalyst in this process.
Following the European Union Model
The currently fragmented Arab World should follow the example of the European Union.
For centuries such countries as the United Kingdom, Germany, France and many others
engaged in continuous economic, political and military warfare. The terrible cost
and ultimate futility of these actions finally led to an institutional framework
of economic and political cooperation.
A peace agreement between Israel and Palestine could be the start of establishing
the Confederation of Abraham. The issues of territorial boundaries, the status of
the Palestinian refugees, Israeli settlements and Jerusalem can be resolved more
generously within the framework of a peace confederation. Because of its large Palestinian
refugee population, Jordan would have to be involved in the peace process. Accordingly
the Confederation of Abraham would be started as a trilateral confederation among
these three nations -- Israel, Jordan and Palestine.
Following the establishment of the Confederation a mutually satisfactory peace treaty
between Syria and Israel could be achieved. Then Syria and Lebanon would join the
Confederation. The European Union similarly started with only six countries. Gradually
other nations joined, and the process is continuing.
The next phase would have the participation of Egypt and some of the Gulf states,
after meeting the conditions of participation. Ultimately all the countries of the
Arab League would participate, transforming the fragmented Arab World into a great
Arab Nation, similar to what existed many centuries before.
This restored Arab Nation would accept Israel and other ethnic groups existing within
its existing boundaries. By definition a great nation (similar to the United States,
for example), has the following characteristics:
The Confederation of Abraham, once established, would ensure the economic and social development of its members. The Confederation would also become a major force for human development and progress.
Structure of the Peace Confederation
Governmental powers will belong to the component countries. Only those powers specifically
delegated will be under the jurisdiction of the Confederation. The governing institutions
would follow the example of the European Union, modified to meet the special conditions
of the region.
There must be a sharing of oil income, to reduce the differences between the rich
and the poor states. As much as 25% of the oil revenues should be set aside for a
development fund for the needy countries of the Confederation. A Middle East development
bank could be established for this purpose. Similarly, water resource development
and sharing agreements must be established, to make a just allocation of this vital
resource. A "peace water pipeline" to carry water from Turkish rivers to
the Arabian Peninsula would offer a real opportunity for regional cooperation. Building
and improving the transportation and communications infrastructure would facilitate
economic cooperation. Opening up markets and increasing trade exchanges would consolidate
economic interdependence. Tourism and the tourist industry could bring increased
revenues to the region.
The industrial and agricultural development programs, water supply and irrigation
projects, and the general development of the economy -- including the service sector
-- will gradually solve the problems of insufficient jobs and unemployment. The stabilizing
of the societies involved would also significantly increase investments in the economy
by the United States and Europe. Conditions will be created to reverse the brain
drain, and make the needed progress in the scientific and technical fields.
The improvement of the economy will be favorable to political and social development
as well. A gradual process of democratization -- under constitutional monarchies
or republican forms of governments -- will take place. The status of women will gradually
improve, as the expanded economy will require the participation of women in the professions
and in the work force.
The Role of Israel
Special attention has to be given to the role of Israel in the Confederation of Abraham.
An independent Palestine must emerge in the Occupied Territories and coexist with
Israel. In exchange, Israel will provide valuable "unity services" to the
new Confederation:
Resolving Territorial Disputes
The establishment of the Confederation will be followed quickly by the resolution
of the major territorial disputes. Israel's participation in the Confederation of
Abraham ensures that an independent Palestinian state will be established on the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The Golan Heights will be returned to Syria. The civil
war in the Sudan can be resolved by granting cultural autonomy to the non-Arab minorities.
Other conflicts in countries such as Algeria can be resolved by the mediation of
the Confederation.
The status of Jerusalem needs to be readjusted. The City of Peace will become not
only the capital of Israel and Palestine, but also will offer extra-territorial privileges
to the Islamic, Christian and Jewish holy places, and some Confederation and United
Nations activities.
The Problem of Non-Arab Minorities
The existence of the several minorities in the Arab World also requires special attention.
Millions of Kurds, Black Sudanese, Berbers and others want to have their culture
and traditions maintained. Many Palestinians now living as refugees will be allowed
to return to Israel under plans for family reunions. Many others may be unable to
return to Israel and will have to be settled in the new Palestinian state. Other
Palestinians may choose to be absorbed in the economies of their host countries,
still retaining their identities as Palestinians. (Of course, financial and other
compensation will be given for loss of properties.) The legal establishment of dual
citizenship will solve the problem of cultural or ethnic identification.
Dual Citizenship
The Confederation will formally establish the idea that adherence to a culture or
civilization may be separated from living in a country and participating in its economy.
In the Confederation anyone can claim dual citizenship. Thus Kurds living in Iraq
can choose to have a Kurdish cultural citizenship, but must have Iraqi economic citizenship.
They will have the privilege of gaining a Kurdish education and culture, and full
participation in the Iraqi economy. Essentially, they gain the benefits of independence,
without disrupting the existing borders of the countries through unacceptable secession.
Culturally they would form a union with their fellow Kurds in Syria, and eventually
also those in Iran and Turkey.
Palestinians will be able to gain a similar cultural unity. A common Palestinian
culture and education will be available to Palestinians who live outside Palestine,
whether in Israel, Jordan or elsewhere.
The problem of the settlements in the West Bank could also be solved through dual
citizenship. Israelis choosing to live in the West Bank would be required to have
Palestinian economic citizenship, but can enjoy the cultural citizenship of Israel.
Besides the Palestinians and the Kurds other minorities, such as Coptic Christians,
African Sudanese, Berbers, the Druze, and others may want to have separate, non-Arabic
cultural citizenship within the Confederation. This will ensure the position of the
Arab majority, and simultaneously reduce inter-cultural rivalries and conflicts.
Benefits of the Peace Confederation
Establishing the Confederation of Abraham will bring substantial benefits to all
concerned. These benefits make this into a true super-optimum, win-win solution.
Bringing About the Confederation
A time of crisis and upheaval often provides opportunities for radical, but beneficial
change. The resolution of the Gulf Crisis may offer a similar occasion to make progress
in the affairs of the Arab World.
The Confederation can be established when the major Arab countries involved accept
it as the basis of the future relations of the region. A time table of specific actions
can be prepared. The total withdrawal of the allied military forces from the region
can be completed at the earliest possible time. The various institutions and agencies
can be set up and funded. Israel can be invited to join the Confederation in the
roles suggested above. While outside powers must not be involved in the setting up
of the Confederation, they can be requested to guarantee the eventual territorial
settlements. Within one year the Confederation of Abraham can be a functioning entity.
A cultural and spiritual revival of the restored Arab Nation would be the natural
outcome of the Confederation of Abraham. The Confederation also would serve as a
model for overcoming the futile struggles and hostilities that hamper human progress
throughout the Third World. The evolution of a more tolerant and peaceful world would
be facilitated, where the now wasted resources on excessive armaments could be applied
to the meeting of human needs.
Downsizing the war institution and abolishing militarism would enable the shifting
of resources to economic and social development, and the solving of environmental
problems that now begin to threaten human survival. Scientific and technological
progress promises a continuing improvement of the human condition, provided we move
from a mindset of hatreds and enmities to that of amity and cooperation. The countries
within the Confederation of Abraham -- the place of origin of several of the world's
great religions -- could provide the moral force needed to achieve this vital objective
of human survival.
APPENDIX
The idea of resolving peacefully the many problems of the Arab World has much emotional appeal. In the past, the mindset of Arab culture tended to resist solutions based on mutual cooperation and the full acceptance of the Christian and Jewish minorities -- dhimmis -- as equals. In the aftermath of the enormous losses suffered -- in human lives, physical destruction, uprooting of populations -- the Arab political system needs to be infused with new ideas, based on a realistic view of the Middle East and the rest of the world. Ultimately, a change of the Arab mindset toward full cooperation and acceptance of minorities will achieve the revival of the Arab World.
The Confederation of Abraham is an attempt to reach a feasible super-optimum solution, where most parties of a dispute come out ahead of their best expectations. To prove the validity of the proposed solution, it is necessary to compare it to the other likely alternatives, in a standard and quantifiable way. Such a comparative model should list the major objectives to be achieved, the most likely political alternatives, and probability measurements of achieving the major objectives under each alternative system. Following this approach, the peace confederation option -- the Confederation of Abraham -- gains by far the highest total value, because it would resolve most of the problems that hinder the progress of the Arab World.
The attached table "Middle East/Arab World -- Policy Alternatives" is constructed as follows:
A. The various political and security systems that are emerging after the Gulf Crisis are listed. These include the following possibilities:
B. The eleven goals represent the most significant objectives of the inhabitants of the region, and of the other countries that have economic and political relations with the ArabWorld:
Domestic tranquility is essential to the resolution of differences and the development of the economies and societies of the various countries.
Peaceful external relations are needed for economic development and the reduction of military expenditures.
Preventing outside domination is to ensure that the development of the region will benefit its inhabitants instead of outsiders.
Reduction of military expenditures will provide the funds for economic development.
Increasing religious observance is needed to counteract trends toward excessive materialism that may result from prosperity.
Increasing economic development is crucial to satisfying the unmet human needs of much of the Arab world.
Increasing social development is needed for gaining political stability and the elevation of the status of women.
Developing water resources is essential to satisfy the need for a growing population and the industrialization of the region.
Reliable oil supplies will provide much of the resources needed for economic development. Further benefits will be obtained through participation in a growing world economy fueled by the petroleum energy source.
Assistance to the developing world will be secured through continuing growth of the world economy made possible by reversing the arms race.
Reducing terrorism is required to eliminate the negative image caused by this counter-productive activity.
The table organizes the policy options and goals. Each goal is assigned a percentage weight factor based on the perceived importance of the goal. For example, increasing economic development gets a high weight of 20, while the weight of only 2 assigned to reducing terrorism reflects the minor importance of the activity.
A subjective value is assigned to each combination of policy option and goal. For the sake of simplicity only the values of 1 to 4 are assigned, with 4 being the best value for the goal, and 1 the worst, with 2 and 3 in between. For example, the rivalries of the existing political system give a low value of 1 to the reduction of military expenditures. In contrast, the peace confederation option would eliminate the rivalries, and yields a high value of 4 in the reduction of military expenditures.
The next step involves the adjustment of each percentage weight assigned to a given goal by the subjective value of reaching that goal under a given policy option. For example, an increasing economic development value of 2 results in a 40 adjusted weight of that goal.
Finally, the individual policy action/goal adjusted weights are summarized, to yield a total measurement for the policy option. Using the methodology, the higher the summarized measurement, the better the policy option. (The highest possible total is 400.) The fundamentalist reform option produces the lowest result, because its anti-West bias would hinder the badly needed economic and infrastructure development of the Arab World. Conversely, the peace confederation option gains the highest total result, because it achieves most of the objectives of the people living in and around the Arab World.
| Goals------------------> | Domestic Tranquility | Peaceful External Relations | Preventing Outside Domination | Reduction of Military Expenditures | Increasing Religious Observance | Increasing Economic Development | Increasing Social Development | Developing Water Resources | Reliable Oil Supplies | Assistance to Third World | Reducing Terrorism | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weight Factors-----> |
8 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
20 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
6 |
2 |
100 |
| Policy Options |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| 1. Existing Political System |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
24 |
| ----Adjusted weight |
24 |
20 |
20 |
10 |
30 |
40 |
16 |
16 |
24 |
12 |
4 |
216 |
| 2. Fundamentalist Reform |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
18 |
| ----Adjusted weight |
16 |
10 |
30 |
10 |
40 |
20 |
8 |
8 |
16 |
6 |
2 |
166 |
| 3. Secular Reform |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
24 |
| ----Adjusted weight |
16 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
20 |
60 |
24 |
16 |
24 |
6 |
4 |
230 |
| 4. U.S. Security System |
2 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
23 |
| ----Adjusted weight |
16 |
30 |
10 |
20 |
20 |
40 |
16 |
16 |
24 |
12 |
4 |
208 |
| 5. Peace Confederation |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
42 |
| ----Adjusted weight |
32 |
40 |
40 |
40 |
30 |
80 |
32 |
32 |
32 |
24 |
6 |
388 |
| Note: Numerical values of 1 to 4 are assigned to each combination of Policy Options and Goals. |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
/\/\/\ |
| Estimated value ratings: | 1 = Poor |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
Best option |
| - | 2 = Fair |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| - | 3 = Good |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| - | 4 = Excellent |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |